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The reality is that business and investment spending are the true leading indicators of the economy and the stock market. If you want to know where the stock market is headed, forget about consumer spending and retail sales figures. Look to business spending, price inflation, interest rates, and productivity gains.
Monetary conditions exert an enormous influence on stock prices. Indeed, the monetary climate - primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy - is the dominant factor in determining the stock market's major direction.
A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.
Credit card companies are jacking up interest rates, lowering credit limits, and closing accounts - and people who have made timely payments are not exempt. So even if you pay off your balance - and that's tough when interest rates are insanely high - there's a good chance your credit limit will be slashed, and that will hurt your FICO score.
A higher IOER rate encourages banks to raise the interest rates they charge, putting upward pressure on market interest rates regardless of the level of reserves in the banking sector. While adjusting the IOER rate is an effective way to move market interest rates when reserves are plentiful, federal funds have generally traded below this rate.
The FOMC has considerable control over short-term interest rates. We have much less influence over long-term rates, which are set in the marketplace.
Interest rates are used to achieve overall economic stability.
Your credit score affects the interest rates you're offered on credit cards and loans, can be used to vet your job application, and in some states may influence your insurance premiums.
Politicians attend dinners at hotels with contractors. Bankers discuss interest rates at lunch.
I will say this: the central banks can actually support growth beyond a point. When there is no inflation, they can cut interest rates, and that is the way they support growth, but if you cut interest rate to the bone, there is nothing more to cut. It is very hard to support growth beyond that.
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Stronger regulation and supervision aimed at problems with underwriting practices and lenders' risk management would have been a more effective and surgical approach to constraining the housing bubble than a general increase in interest rates.
Of course, looking tough on inflation is part of any central banker's job description: if investors believe that inflation is going to get out of control, you end up with higher interest rates and capital flight, and a vicious circle quickly ensues.
Efforts to promote financial stability through adjustments in interest rates would increase the volatility of inflation and employment. As a result, I believe a macro-prudential approach to supervision and regulation needs to play the primary role.
Low interest rates are a big opportunity for investment. But the issue is that this money should go to the real economy, not the financial economy.
Families rely on financial services more than ever, but those who need them most - who struggle to make ends meet - too often must contend with sky-high interest rates and tricks and traps buried in the fine print of their loan products.
Former Senator Al D'Amato in 1991 offered an amendment to cap credit card interest rates at 14 percent.
The market needs to set prices, including interest rates and allocate resources. If it were up to me, we would abolish the Fed and return to the gold standard. Absent that, the Fed should be completely removed from the political sphere, its dual mandate replaced by a single mission to provide the nation with sound money.
Homeowners refinance their loans when interest rates go down. Businesses refinance their loans.
The impact of low interest rates is broad and deep. Many Americans rely on interest income from their savings to help cover their cost of living.
The expectation of gradual policy normalization should reduce the likelihood of outsized movements in interest rates.
The crisis and recession have led to very low interest rates, it is true, but these events have also destroyed jobs, hamstrung economic growth and led to sharp declines in the values of many homes and businesses.
Negative interest rates hurt banks' balance sheets, with the 'wealth effect' on banks overwhelming the small increase in incentives to lend.
It all comes down to interest rates. As an investor, all you're doing is putting up a lump-sump payment for a future cash flow.
There is no difference, where aims are concerned, between a terrorist with a gun and bomb in his hand and a terrorist who has dollars, euros, and interest rates.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Big banks, highly leveraged casinos, do whatever they can to keep the cost of their gambling as cheap as possible. This means keeping interest rates as cheap as possible.
The Fed's ability to raise and lower short-term interest rates is its primary control over the economy.
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